A lot has been spoken about blackouts and the risk or otherwise of their occurrence, we’ve put together some of the most 
instructive comments from leading players in the debate including government, the regulator Ofgem, National Grid and market commentators.
The contradiction is palpable, as is the sense that a lot of hope underpins the ‘certainties’ being promised.
We leave it to you to evaluate the ‘true’ picture of the risk that the UK faces over Winter 2014/15 from power shortages.
Ed Davey
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey addressing Ofgem’s admission that the risk of black outs within 18 months had doubled from a year previously:
“Without timely action there would be risks to security of supply”
Duncan Burt, National Grid’s Head of Commercial Preparations on the Winter 2014/15 capacity margin and how National Grid plans to manage shortages:
“Margins are tightening this winter, we’re looking at that very closely and we’re looking at a range of scenarios. We’re very happy that we’ve got robust plans in place. Obviously the weather and conditions can change during the winter but we’ve got access to additional power if we need that we can bring on both from power generators and moving demand away from the peak to ensure security of supply”.
Peter Atherton of Liberum Capital on commonplace plant outages:
“The loss of … plant would not normally be a cause for concern. But UK energy policy has managed to engineer historically low reserve margins as we head into winter”
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on National Grid’s response to the Didcot B fire:
“I’ve been reassured by National Grid that there is no risk to electricity supplies”
Peter Atherton of Liberum Capital on Didcot B’s catastrophic fire:
“Could cause a serious security of supply event, and a probable surge in wholesale prices”
Ofgem
Ofgem statement on National Grid’s Winter 2014/15 Outlook report:
“We welcome that National Grid is finalising contracts with power stations to provide extra reserve to help it balance the system if needed. This is a sensible precaution to take account of market developments including uncertainty over power station availability and this is why Ofgem approved new tools to help National Grid manage these lower margins from this winter”.
Cordi O’Hara, National Grid’s Director of Market Operation on the rapid decline in capacity margin from 16.8% in 2011/12 to 4.1% today:
“The electricity margin has decreased compared to recent years, but the outlook remains manageable and well within the reliability standard set by government”
Rachel Fletcher, Ofgem’s Senior Partner for Markets on her understanding of the National Grid Winter Outlook Report 2014/15:
“The message …. is that there is no increased risk of blackouts.”
Peter Atherton of Liberum Capital on the fires at Ferrybridge, Didcot B, the reactor boiler issues at the Heysham and Hartlepool nuclear reactors and the failing bricks at the Hunterston B nuclear station:
“[It] may just be an unusual run of events, or it might suggest that the aging power station fleet is becoming more vulnerable to accidents”.
Cordi O’Hara, National Grid’s Director of Market Operation on their preparedness for shortages:
“As System Operator, we have taken the sensible precaution to secure additional tools to bolster our response to tighter margins.We will continue to keep a close watching brief across both electricity and gas throughout the winter so that we’re strongly placed to respond to any unanticipated events.”
Dan Lewis Energy Policy Adviser at the Institute of Directors on National Grid’s response:
“The plant retirement rate has simply outrun the replacement rate. Paying businesses to cut their power use at peak times to keep the lights on is no way to run a modern economy.”
National Grid
Cordi O’Hara, National Grid’s Director of Market Operation on overconfidence in their forecast outlook:
“We cannot be complacent and will be monitoring the situation through to spring next year”
Duncan Burt, Head of Commercial Operation at National Grid, on their focus:
“[Emergency supply measures to encourage plants to reconnect to the network are] targeted at plant that is already unavailable or is struggling to remain available for the coming winter and next”
Cordi O’Hara, Director of Market Operation at National Grid on their options for managing supply constraints:
“[We can] offer additional capacity over and above that available in the electricity or balancing markets – for example plant that would otherwise be closed or mothballed”.
Duncan Burt, Head of Commercial Operation at National Grid, explaining the protocol behind their incentive scheme for plant availability:
“It’s for generators to set out whether they would have been running and at what level this winter, and to explain their decision to enter into the process.”
Scottish Power
A spokesman for Scottish Power on the impact of their incentives for operating previously offline plant:
“This contract will ensure that electricity consumers throughout the UK benefit from security of supply from a reliable and flexible gas fired power station.”
A spokesman for National Grid on the policy of serving “demand control imminent” notices to deliver brown outs said:
“Often a slight reduction in electricity voltage will do the trick . . . But if there’s a very severe supply disruption, the distribution companies may need to implement controlled power cuts to homes and businesses.”
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on the risk of blackouts during winter 2014/15:
“There will be no blackouts. Period.”
Steve Holliday, National Grid Chief Executive on the capacity margin forecast for 2014/15:
“Margins are tighter than they were last winter, which were tighter than they were the year before”
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on his confidence in the measures needed to prevent blackouts during winter 2014/15:
“We have extra contingencies on top of the caution, and extra contingencies on top of the contingencies”.
Professor Jim Watson, Research Director at the UK Energy Research Centre on the likelihood of large-scale black outs:
“Things are more uncomfortable than we would want but I don’t think there is a serious risk of the lights going out”.
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on the policy of paying businesses to stop using energy from the grid network during peak periods to prevent blackouts during winter 2014/15:
“They [companies] volunteer to get payments – if the National Grid say ‘we want you to come off the national grid for a few hours and generate your own power’, you will get paid for that.”
Professor Jim Watson, Research Director at the UK Energy Research Centre on his confidence in the Winter Outlook 2014/15 report:
“The extra measures that have been put in place will see us through, probably.”
Jonathan Dale of Genscape, monitors of power generation and transmission on the likelihood of short term improvement to the capacity margin:
“In the UK you’ve got to look a lot further out, as much as three to four years, before you see more capacity coming on board”
Cordi O’Hara, Director of UK Market Operation at the National Grid on the impact of diversified energy sources are having on the capacity margin:
“I think everyone is aware of the investment people are making in … wind and solar and that is contributing to demand reduction”
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on paying more for businesses’ cooperation in managing usage through Winter 2014/15:
“We have demand-side contingencies. We have had them for a long time, but they wanted – quite rightly – to see if we could increase that”
US Chamber of Commerce
US Chamber of Commerce on Britain’s placing as having the fourth most secure energy supplies in the world:
“[Regardless the shrinking spare energy capacity] could lead to blackouts”.
Peter Atherton of Liberum Capital on the UKs recent energy policy:
“The odds are still that UK will escape a security of supply crunch this winter. But the mere fact that a security of supply crisis is a material possibility is in itself a sign of huge policy failure in our view.”
Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change Ed Davey on how businesses are being required to change behaviours in the face of static energy policy:
“And some companies would change their behaviour, voluntarily, and be recompensed for it. Turning down their refrigerators by a degree, or changing a shift pattern for a week so staff come in earlier. The idea is to move factory production away from peak energy demand periods”.
Ofgem statement on the precipitous nature of the energy market:
“We are confident that National Grid has the right levers to keep the lights on and maintain a risk of customer disconnections which is better than the reliability standard set by government. However, given the tighter margins there can never be any room for complacency and National Grid and the industry must remain vigilant at all times”.
And there you have it, energy black outs in their own words. Confident?